Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
Abstrakty
This article studies the integration processes between Azerbaijan and Ukraine by using the indicators of the integratedness of the GDPs of these countries and of the trade turnover between them. The annual data from 1994 to 2018 are studied as the period of monitoring. All the studied time series are non-stationary, and in passing to the time series of differences, they retain only the information corresponding to short-term changes in their dynamics; while information about long-term changes in the process, contained in those levels of variables that are lost in the transition to differences, is lost. Therefore, problems of correct modelling of the corresponding time series, of which components lead to departure from stationarity, arise. The article uses the econometric methodology of the gravity modelling of the correlation between non-stationary time series. In the modelling, econometric methods, all the necessary step-by-step statistical procedures to determine the order of integratedness of the non-stationary time series, to identify the assessment of the parameters of the model and to check its adequacy and the accuracy of short-term and long-term predicted values are correctly used by applying Excel tools and the Eviews package. The departure of empirical tests from the trend is analyzed. The constructed dynamic analogue of the gravity model enables to qualitatively predict the status of integration of the foreign trade of the studied two countries. Based on the constructed model, econometrically sound recommendations that enable a dynamic analysis of effective regulation of the export and import transactions between these countries by the governments to balance the mutual trade have been developed. (original abstract)
Czasopismo
Rocznik
Tom
Numer
Strony
274--290
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
autor
- Baku State University (BSU), Azerbaijan
autor
- Baku State University (BSU), Azerbaijan
Bibliografia
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- Dankevych, V.Y., Pyvovar, P.V., & Dankevych, Y.M. (2020). The impact of World Trade Liberalization on the Development of Domestic Brewing Companies. The Problems of economy, 1(43), 59-67.
- Frolov, S.M., & Savytska, О.І. (2016). Research of Causal Relations between Components of foreign Trade and Economic Performance of the Region Country and World. The Problems of economy, 1, 282-288.
- Golovan, D.V. (2012). Dynamics of the structure of foreign trade and the international strategy of economic development of Ukraine. Economy and management of machinery and equipment enterprises: problems of theory and practice, 3(19), 98-205.
- Hall, P. (1992). On Bootstrap Confidence Intervals in Nonparametric Regression. Annals of Statistics 20(2), 695-711.
- Johnson, R. R. (2015). A Guide to Using Eviews with Using Econometrics: A Practical Guide University of San Diego.
- Kalyuzhna, N. G. (2020). International Trade Integration of Ukraine in the context of Deepening Interstate Conflict. The Problems of economy 1(43), 27-35.
- Kharlamova, G., & Vertelieva, O. (2013). The International Competitiveness of Countries: Economic-Mathematical Approach, Economics & Sociology, 6(2), 39-52.
- Kenneth, N. B., & Carey, P. (2010). Data Analysis with Microsoft Excel: Updated for Office 2007, Third Edition, p. 613, ISBN-13: 978-0-495-39178-4, Cengage Learning products are represented in Canada by Nelson Education, Ltd.
- Moroz, S., Nagyova, L., Bilan, Yu., Horska, E., & Polakova, Z. (2017). The current state and prospects pf trade relations between Ukraine and the European Union: The Visegard vector Economic Annals-XXI, 163(1-2(1)), 14-21.
- Orudzhev E.G., & Huseynova S.M. (2019). The cointegration relations between Azerbaijan's GDP and the balances of the trade relations of Russia and Belarus. Journal of Contemporary Applied Mathematics, 9(2), 73-92.
- Orudzhev, E. G., & Huseynova, S. M. (2020). About one cointegration issue of trade relations Azerbaijan, Russia, Belarus. Journal of Advanced Research in Dynamical and Control Systems (JARDCS), 12(6), 1385-1394.
- Orudzhev, E.G., & Alizade, A.R. (2020). Cointegration of Trade and Economic Relations between Azerbaijan and Ukraine. Journal of Contemporary Applied Mathematics, 2, 83-97. http://journalcam.com/wp****content/uploads/2020/05/100110.pdf
- Pylin, A.G. (2015). Foreign economic relations of Azerbaijan in the context of regional integration. Problems of the post****Soviet space https://www.postsovietarea.com/jour
- Tinbergen, J. (1962). An Analysis of World Trade Flows. // Shaping the World Economy. Suggestions for an International Economic Policy. Appendix VI. - New-York: The Twentieth Century Fund, 262-293.
- Verbeek, M. (2012). A Guide to Modern Econometrics. John Wiley & Sons p. 386
- www.stat.gov.az (08.07.2020)
- www.worldbank.com (08.07.2020)
Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikatory
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.ekon-element-000171632324