Zmiany luki VAT w Polsce: rola czynników koniunkturalnych i strukturalnych

• Autorzy: Karolina Konopczak

Warianty tytułu

Changes in the VAT Gap in Poland: The Role of Cyclical and Structural Factors

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

W niniejszym artykule podjęto próbę dekompozycji zmian luki VAT w Polsce na części wynikające z działania czynników o charakterze koniunkturalnym i strukturalnym. W tym celu zaproponowano alternatywną względem stosowanych w literaturze metodę jej kwantyfikacji. Łączy ona trzy tradycje modelowania dochodów podatkowych: metodę rozbieżności, metodę szacowania elastyczności dochodów podatkowych oraz tzw. metody wskaźnikowe. Z racji ekonometrycznego charakteru metoda pozwala na oszacowanie zmian luki przy kontroli stanu koniunktury i tym samym oczyszczenie ich z wpływu czynników cyklicznych. Otrzymane wyniki wskazują, że trajektoria luki VAT w Polsce jest efektem działania zarówno czynników koniunkturalnych, jak i strukturalnych. Ich relatywne znaczenie zmieniało się jednak w czasie. Począwszy od światowego kryzysu finansowego większą rolę w determinowaniu zmian luki VAT zaczęły odgrywać czynniki strukturalne, zarówno w przypadku jej wzrostu w latach 2008-2012, jak i spadku w latach 2015-2018. Tym niemniej, nawet w latach 2012-2015, kiedy to luka osiągnęła najwyższy poziom w analizowanym okresie, ponad 40% jej wzrostu w stosunku do okresu sprzed kryzysu finansowego można wytłumaczyć pogorszeniem koniunktury. Z kolei zmniejszenie luki odnotowane w latach 2016-2018 wynikało - zgodnie z otrzymanymi szacunkami - w około 20% z działania czynników o charakterze koniunkturalnym. Bez procyklicznego spadku luka ukształtowałaby się pod koniec próby na poziomie ok. 12-14% zamiast 10%.(abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

This article attempts to decompose the changes in the value-added tax (VAT) gap in Poland into the cyclical and the structural component. To this end, a methodology for quantifying change used in the literature is proposed. The methodology combines three traditions of tax revenues modelling: the discrepancy method, the tax elasticity estimation, and the so-called indicator methods. The proposed approach makes it possible to quantify changes in the VAT gap while controlling for the business cycle, and thereby to extract their structural component that is most relevant for the long-term sustainability of public finances. The obtained results indicate that the trajectory of the VAT gap in Poland is determined by both cyclical and structural factors. However, their relative importance has changed over time. Since the global financial crisis, structural factors have started to play a greater role, both in the increase of the VAT gap in the years 2008-2012 and its decrease in 2015-2018. Nevertheless, even in the case of 2012-2015, when the gap reached its highest level in the sample period, over 40% of its increase compared to prior to the financial crisis can be explained by unfavourable economic conditions.

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Cykl koniunkturalny; Luka podatkowa; Podatek od wartości dodanej (VAT); Elastyczność dochodowa; Kointegracja; Modele nieliniowe

EN

Business cycles; Tax gap; Value Added Tax (VAT); Income elasticity; Cointegration; Nonlinear models

• Czasopismo: Gospodarka Narodowa
• Rocznik: 2022
• Numer: nr 1
• Strony: 44--65

Twórcy

autor

Karolina Konopczak

• Katedra Ekonomii Stosowanej, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie, Polska

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Identyfikatory

DOI

10.33119/GN/145539