Developments in the Household Debt-To-Gdp Ratio Across the Oecd Countries Since the Global Financial Crisis

• Autorzy: Piotr Marek Bolibok

Warianty tytułu

Zmiany w poziomie wskaźnika zadłużenia gospodarstw domowych do PKB w krajach OECD po wybuchu globalnego kryzysu finansowego

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The paper aims to investigate the developments in the household debt-to-GDP ratio across OECD countries over the period 2007-2017 from the standpoint of the individual tendencies in the numerator (household debt) and denominator (GDP) of the ratio, and to identify the groups of countries exhibiting similar patterns in the post-crisis evolution of these variables. The investigation employs a comparative analysis of the average rates of change in household debt and GDP in the sample, as well as k-medians clustering aimed at identifying similarities. The results of the research reveal significant disparities in the development of the household debt-to-GDP ratio across the examined countries in the analysed period driven by the dominant tendencies in its numerator and denominator, which in turn appear to be related to the pre-crisis levels of household sector indebtedness and GDP per capita, as well as the depth of recession that affected each of the particular economies. (original abstract)

Celem artykułu jest ocena zmian w poziomie wskaźnika zadłużenia gospodarstw domowych do PKB w krajach OECD w okresie 2007-2017 z perspektywy tendencji występujących w jego liczniku i mianowniku oraz identyfikacja grup krajów cechujących się podobnym przebiegiem tych zjawisk po wybuchu globalnego kryzysu finansowego. Zastosowane metody badawcze obejmują analizę porównawczą przeciętnego tempa zmian zadłużenia gospodarstw domowych oraz PKB w próbie oraz analizę skupień z użyciem algorytmu k-median, zorientowaną na identyfikację powyższych podobieństw. Uzyskane wyniki wskazują na silne zróżnicowanie kierunków zmian zachodzących w poziomie badanego wskaźnika w analizowanej grupie krajów w badanym okresie, wynikające z odmiennego przebiegu zjawisk kształtujących wielkości ujęte w jego liczniku i mianowniku, determinowanych zarówno przez poziomy zadłużenia sektora gospodarstw domowych i PKB per capita w okresie poprzedzającym wybuch kryzysu, jak i przez głębokość recesji, jaka dotknęła poszczególne gospodarki. (abstrakt oryginalny)

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Households; Indebtedness; Economic growth; Financial crisis

PL

Gospodarstwa domowe; Zadłużenie; Wzrost gospodarczy; Kryzys finansowy

• Czasopismo: Acta Scientiarum Polonorum. Oeconomia
• Rocznik: 19 (2020)
• Numer: nr 1
• Strony: 5--12

Twórcy

autor

Piotr Marek Bolibok

• John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin, Poland

Bibliografia

• Alter, A., Xiaochen Feng, A., Valckx, N. (2018). Understanding the macro-financial effects of household debt: A global perspective. IMF Working Paper WP/18/76.
• Anioła-Mikołajczak, P. (2016). Over-indebtedness of households in Poland and its determinants. Acta Scientiarum Polonorum Oeconomia, 15 (4), 17-26.
• Anundsen, A.K., Jansen, E.S. (2013). Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit. Journal of Housing Economics, 22 (3), 192-212.
• Aron, J., Muellbauer, J. (2000). Financial liberalization, consumption and debt in South Africa. University of Oxford Working Paper WPS 2000-22.
• Barba, A., Pivetti, M. (2009). Rising household debt: Its causes and macroeconomic implications - a long-period analysis. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 33, 113-137.
• Bloxham, P., Kent, C. (2009). Household indebtedness. The Australian Economic Review 42 (3), 327-339.
• Bolibok, P., Matras-Bolibok, A. (2018). Has household debt become a substitute for incomes? An evidence from the OECD countries. [In:] K.S. Soliman (Ed.), Proceedings of the 32nd International Business Information Management Association Conference (IBIMA) - Vision 2020: Sustainable Economic Development and Application of Innovation Management from Regional Expansion to Global Growth. 15-16.11.2018 Seville. International Business Information Management Association, Seville, 5183-5198.
• Brown, S., Taylor, K. (2008). Household debt and financial assets: Evidence from Germany, Great Britain and the US. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 171 (3), 615-643.
• Debelle, G. (2004). Household debt and the macroeconomy. BIS Quarterly Review, March.
• Del Rio, A., Young, G. (2006). The determinants of unsecured borrowing: evidence from the BHPS. Applied Financial Economics, 16 (15), 1119-1144.
• Dynan, K.E., Kohn, D.L. (2007). The rise in U.S. household indebtedness: Causes and consequences. Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion 37.
• Frank, R.H., Levine, A.S., Dijk, O. (2014). Expenditure cascades. Review of Economics, 1 (1-2), 55-73.
• Gimeno, R., Martinez-Carrascal, C. (2010). The relationship between house prices and house purchase loans: The Spanish case. Journal of Banking and Finance, 34 (8), 1849-1855.
• Hays, S. (2018). A global view of household debt. Bloom Economic Research Division.
• Jordà, Ò., Schularick, M., Taylor, A.M. (2016). The great mortgaging: Housing finance, crises and business cycles. Economic Policy, 31 (85), 107-152.
• Klein, M. (2015). Inequality and household debt: a panel cointegration analysis. Empirica, 42, 391-412.
• Leicht, K.T. (2012). Borrowing to the brink. Consumer debt in America. [In:] K. Porter, E. Warren (Eds.), Broke. How debt bankrupts the middle class. Stanford University Press, Stanford.
• Magri, S. (2007). Italian households' debt: The participation to the debt market and the size of the loan. Empirical Economics, 33 (3), 401-426.
• Malinen, T. (2016). Does income inequality contribute to credit cycles? Journal of Economic Inequality, 14 (3), 309-325.
• Mason, J.W., Jayadev, A. (2014). "Fisher dynamics" in US household debt, 1929-2011. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 6 (3), 214-234.
• Meng, S., Hoang, N.T., Siriwardana, M. (2011). The determinants of Australian household debt: A macro-level study. University of New England Business, Economics and Public Policy Working Paper 4.
• Mian, A., Sufi, A., Verner, E. (2017). Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132 (4), 1755-1817.
• Moore, G.L., Stockhammer, E. (2018). The drivers of household indebtedness re-considered: an empirical evaluation of competing arguments on the macroeconomic determinants of household indebtedness in OECD countries. Post Keynesian Economics Study Group Working Paper 1803.
• OECD (2019a). Household debt (indicator). https://doi. org/10.1787/f03b6469-en [accessed 15.04.2019].
• OECD (2019b). OECD.Stat. Retrieved from https://stats. oecd.org [accessed 15.04.2019].
• Oikarinen, E. (2009). Interaction between housing prices and household borrowing: The Finnish case. Journal of Banking and Finance, 33 (4), 747-756.
• Rubaszek, M., Serwa, D. (2014). Determinants of credit to households: An approach using the life-cycle model. Economic Systems, 38 (4), 572-587.
• Stockhammer, E. (2015). Rising inequality as a cause of the present crisis. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 39 (3), 935-958.
• Turk, R.A. (2015). Housing price and household debt interactions in Sweden. IMF Working Paper WP/15/276.
• Zabai, A. (2017). Household debt: recent developments and challenges. BIS Quarterly Review, December.
• Zinman, J. (2014). Household debt: Facts, puzzles, theories, and policies. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 20496.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.22630/ASPE.2020.19.1.1