Estymacja liczby cudzoziemców w Polsce z wykorzystaniem metody capture-recapture

• Autorzy: Maciej Beręsewicz , Grzegorz Gudaszewski , Marcin Szymkowiak

Warianty tytułu

Estimation of the Number of Foreigners in Poland Using the Capture-Recapture Method

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie metody badań oraz wyników szacunku populacji cudzoziemców przebywających w Polsce. W badaniu wykorzystano administracyjne źródła danych. Zastosowano metodę capture-recapture bazującą na modelach log-liniowych. Szacuje się, że w 2015 i 2016 r. na terenie Polski mogło przebywać odpowiednio ok. 500 tys. (przyjmując 95-procentowy przedział ufności - od 369 tys. do 724 tys.) oraz ok. 744 tys. (od 601 tys. do 943 tys.) cudzoziemców. Jest to pierwsza tego typu kompleksowa analiza dotycząca próby estymacji liczby cudzoziemców w Polsce, która wpisuje się w nurt badań nad populacjami trudnymi do zbadania. Należy jednak mieć na uwadze konieczność spełnienia założeń tej metody, co również stanowił przedmiot rozważań autorów. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The aim of this paper is to present the methodology and the results of the estimation of the number of foreigners staying in Poland. Administrative data sources were used in the research. The authors adopted the capture-recapture method based on log-linear models. As a result, the number of foreigners staying in Poland in 2015 and 2016 has been estimated at around 500,000 persons (95% CI: 369,000-724,000) and around 744,000 persons (601,000-943,000), respectively. The study is the first comprehensive analysis of this kind which aims at estimating the number of foreigners in Poland, and thus fits in the current of research on hard-to-survey populations. It has to be remembered, however, that capture-recapture method requires close observance of its strict rules in order to be effective, which is also discussed in depth in the paper. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Estymacja; Cudzoziemcy; Rejestr administracyjny

EN

Estimation; Foreigners; Administrative register

• Czasopismo: Wiadomości Statystyczne
• Rocznik: 2019
• Numer: nr 10
• Strony: 7--35

Twórcy

autor

Maciej Beręsewicz

• Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu

autor

Grzegorz Gudaszewski

• Główny Urząd Statystyczny, Warszawa

autor

Marcin Szymkowiak

• Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Poznaniu

Bibliografia

• Bakker, B. F. M., van der Heijden, P. G. M., Gerritse, S. C. (2017). Estimation of non-registered usual residents in the Netherlands. W: D. Böhning, P. G. M. van der Heijden, J. Bunge (red.), Capture-Recapture Methods for the Social and Medical Sciences (s. 259-273). Boca Raton, Florida: CRC Press.
• Bouchard, M. (2007). A Capture-Recapture Model to Estimate the Size of Criminal Populations and the Risks of Detection in a Marijuana Cultivation Industry. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 23(3), 221-241. DOI: 10.1007/s10940-007-9027-1.
• Bouchard, M. (2008). Towards a Realistic Method to Estimate Cannabis Production in Industrialized Countries. Contemporary Drug Problems, 35(2-3), 291-320. DOI: 10.1177/009145090803500206.
• Bouchard, M., Tremblay, P. (2005). Risks of Arrest across Drug Markets: A Capture-Recapture Analysis of "Hidden" Dealer and User Populations. Journal of Drug Issues, 35(4), 733-754. DOI: 10.1177/002204260503500404.
• Brzezińska, J. (2015). Analiza logarytmiczno-liniowa: teoria i zastosowania z wykorzystaniem programu R. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo C.H. Beck.
• Buckland, S. T., Garthwaite, P. H. (1991). Quantifying Precision of Mark-Recapture Estimates Using the Bootstrap and Related Methods. Biometrics, 47(1), 255-268. DOI: 10.2307/2532510.
• Böhning, D., van der Heijden, P. G. M., Bunge, J. (2017). Capture-Recapture Methods for the Social and Medical Sciences. Boca Raton, Florida: CRC Press.
• Böhning, D., van der Heijden, P. G. M., Bunge, J. (2018). Basic concepts of capture-recapture. W: D. Böhning, P. G. M. van der Heijden, J. Bunge (red.), Capture-Recapture Methods for the Social and Medical Sciences (s. 237-257). Boca Raton, Florida: CRC Press.
• Chao, A. (1989). Estimating Population Size for Sparse Data in Capture-Recapture Experiments. Biometrics, 45(2), 427-438. DOI: 10.2307/2531487.
• Chen, B., Shrivastava, A., Steorts, R. C. (2018). Unique entity estimation with application to the Syrian conflict. The Annals of Applied Statistics, 12(2), 1039-1067. DOI: 10.1214/18-A0AS1163.
• Coumans, A. M., Cruyff, M., van der Heijden, P. G. M., Wolf, J. R. L. M., Schmeets, H. (2017). Estimating Homelessness in the Netherlands Using a Capture- Recapture Approach. Social Indicators Research, 130(1), 189-212. DOI: 10.1007/s11205-015-1171-7.
• Di Cecco, D., Di Zio, M., Filipponi, D., Rocchetti, I. (2018). Population Size Estimation Using Multiple Incomplete Lists with Overcoverage. Journal of Official Statistics, 34(2), 557-572. DOI: 10.2478/jos-2018-0026.
• Di Consiglio, L., Tuoto, T. (2015). Coverage Evaluation on Probabilistically Linked Data. Journal of Official Statistics, 31(3), 415-429. DOI: 10.1515/jos-2015-0025.
• Gemmell, I., Millar, T., Hay, G. (2004). Capture-recapture estimates of problem drug use and the use of simulation based confidence intervals in a stratified analysis. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 58(9), 758-765. DOI: 10.1136/jech.2003.008755.
• Gerritse, S. C. (2016). An application of population size estimation to official statistics: sensitivity of model assumptions and the effect of implied coverage. Pobrane z: https://dspace.library.uu.nl /handle/1874/337476.
• Gerritse, S. C., van der Heijden, P. G. M., Bakker, B. F. M. (2015). Sensitivity of Population Size Estimation for Violating Parametric Assumptions in Log-linear Models. Journal of Official Statistics, 31(3), 357-379. DOI: 10.1515/jos-2015-0022.
• Godwin, R. T., Böhning, D. (2017). Estimation of the population size by using the one-inflated positive Poisson model. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 66(2), 425-448. DOI: 10.1111/rssc.12192.
• Gołata, E. (2012). Spis ludności i prawda. Studia Demograficzne, 161(1), 23-55. DOI: 10.2478 /v10274- 012-0002-y.
• Gołata, E. (2018). Koniec ery tradycyjnych spisów ludności. Poznań: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu.
• Goodman, L. A. (1964). Simple Methods for Analyzing Three-Factor Interaction in Contingency Tables. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 59(306), 319-352. DOI: 10.1080 /01621459.1964.10482163.
• Goodman, L. A. (1968). The Analysis of Cross-Classified Data: Independence, Quasi-Independence, and Interactions in Contingency Tables with or without Missing Entries: R. A. Fisher memorial lecture. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 63(324), 1091-1131. DOI: 10.1080 /01621459.1968.10480916.
• Goodman, L. A. (1969). On Partitioning and Detecting Partial Association in Three-Way Contingency Tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 31(3), 486-498. DOI: 10.1111/j.2517-6161.1969.tb00808.x.
• Goudie, I. B. J., Goudie, M. (2007). Who captures the marks for the Petersen estimator? Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 170(3), 825-839. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467- 985X.2007.00479.x.
• Griffin, R. A. (2014). Potential uses of administrative records for triple system modeling for estimation of census coverage error in 2020. Journal of Official Statistics, 30(2), 177-189. DOI: 10.2478 /jos-2014- 0012.
• van der Heijden, P. G. M., Cruts, G., Cruyff, M. (2013). Methods for population size estimation of problem drug users using a single registration. International Journal of Drug Policy, 24(6), 614-618. DOI: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2013.04.002.
• van der Heijden, P. G. M., Cruyff, M., van Houwelingen, H. C. (2003). Estimating the Size of a Criminal Population from Police Records Using the Truncated Poisson Regression Model. Statistica Neerlandica, 57(3), 289-304. DOI: 10.1111/1467- 9574.00232.
• van der Heijden, P. G. M., Whittaker, J., Cruyff, M., Bakker, B., van der Vliet, R. (2012). People born in the Middle East but residing in the Netherlands: invariant population size estimates and the role of active and passive covariates. The Annals of Applied Statistics, 6(3), 831-852.
• Hudson, C. G. (1998). Estimating Homeless Populations through Structural Equation Modeling. The Journal of Sociology & Social Welfare, 25(2), 136-154.
• Jędrzejczak, A., Kubacki, J. (2014). Problemy jakości danych statystycznych w przypadku badania cech rzadkich. Wiadomości Statystyczne, (6), 11- 26.
• Rossi, C., Mascioli, F. (2008). Capture-recapture methods to estimate prevalence indicators for evaluating drug policies. Bulletin on Narcotics, 15(1-2), 5-25.
• Schepers, W., Nicaise, I. (2017). Estimating the homeless population. Sampling strategies. (HIVA Working Paper Series No. 20). Pobrane z: https://www.belspo.be/belspo/brain-be/projects /FinalReports/MEHOBEL_Final%20report_Annex%20I.pdf.
• The R Development Core Team (2018). R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing.
• Tourangeau, R., Edwards, B., Johnson, T. P., Wolter, K. M., Bates, N. (2014). Hard-to-Survey Populations. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Wolter, K. M. (1986). Some Coverage Error Models for Census Data. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 81(394), 337-346. DOI: 10.1080/01621459.1986.10478277.
• Zhang, L.-C. (2008). Developing methods for determining the number of unauthorized foreigners in Norway. Oslo: Statistisk Sentralbyra. Pobrane z: https://www.ssb.no/a/english/publikasjoner/pdf /doc_200811_en/doc_200811_en.pdf.
• Zhang, L.-C. (2015). On Modelling Register Coverage Errors. Journal of Official Statistics, 31(3), 381-396. DOI: 10.1515/jos-2015-0023.
• Zhang, L.-C., Dunne, J. (2018). Trimmed dual system estimation. W: D. Böhning, P. G. M. van der Heijden, J. Bunge (red.), Capture-recapture methods for the social and medical sciences (s. 237257). Boca Raton, Florida: CRC Press.
• Zwane, E. N., van der Heijden, P. G. M. (2003). Implementing the parametric bootstrap in capture-recapture models with continuous covariates. Statistics & Probability Letters, 65(2), 121-125. DOI: 10.1016/j.spl.2003.07.010.
• Zwane, E., van der Heijden, P. G. M. (2005). Population estimation using the multiple system estimator in the presence of continuous covariates. Statistical Modelling, 5(1), 39-52. DOI: 10.1191 /1471082X05st086oa.