Wyniki wyszukiwania - BazEkon

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Simulation of the Czech koruna's participation in ERM II - alternative approaches

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Helísek M., Mentlík R.

Journal of International Studies

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2017

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10

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nr 2

28-45

The fulfillment of the exchange rate stability criterion requires at least a two-year participation of the given currency in ERM II "without severe tensions". The Czech koruna does not participate in ERM II, inter alia because of risks which are connected with fixed exchange rate. The aim of this paper is to find out how to simulate such participation. At the beginning of the paper, current methods of assessment of the criterion fulfillment by the Czech authorities, European authorities and other authors are analyzed. We conclude that these approaches are inappropriate. We offer our two own assessments which are different and reflect the change in the exchange rate regime since November 2013 (when massive interventions on the foreign exchange market took place). First, to evaluate only the period prior those interventions. Second, to determine the trend of the exchange rate development in 2010-2013 (i.e. the period from the reassuring of the sharp fluctuations of the exchange rate CZK/EUR to the start of interventions) and extrapolate it into present time. In both cases, we come to the same conclusion: the convergence criterion was fulfilled. (original abstract)

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The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime for Czech Koruna in the Context of ERM II Participation and the Related Risks

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Helísek M., Mentlík R.

Journal of International Studies

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2018

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11

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nr 1

124-139

Participation in the exchange rate mechanism ERM II (one of the Maastricht criteria - exchange rate stability) is compatible with certain exchange rate regimes only. The aim of this paper is to find arguments for choosing one of these regimes. The starting point is the current strategy of the euro introduction in the Czech Republic, and the expressed concerns about the risks associated with fixing of the exchange rate. The used method is analysis of data on the currency participation in ERM II and searching for analogies of Czech koruna. The analysis consists of the identification of exchange rate regimes used before and after ERM II so that to determine the duration of ERM II involvement. Fixing of the exchange rate in the regime peg with a band of oscillation of 15% in both directions is the working hypothesis. Criteria of the so-called normal fluctuations margins and the so-called severe tension are also discussed. Development trend of the CZK/EUR exchange rate is examined. The outcome of the research is finding the risks associated with this exchange rate regime. It is the risk of a narrow fluctuation band (2.25%) in depreciation direction and the risk in the form of foreign exchange intervention or interest rate differential at excessive appreciation of the exchange rate.(original abstract)

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Kursy walutowe w gospodarkach podlegających transformacji

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Doman M., Doman R.

Ekonomista

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2003

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nr 1

105-112

Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie analizy zmian systemu kursu walutowego i ich wpływu na kurs polskiego złotego, czeskiej korony i węgierskiego forinta. Kurs walutowy potrakowano jako cenę jednostki waluty obcej w walucie krajowej.

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Czy złoty podzieli los korony czeskiej?

80%

Kowalewski P.

Bank

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1997

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nr 8

15-17

Celem artykułu jest prezentacja przyczyn, które doprowadziły do dewaluacji korony czeskiej (pozorna stabilność korony, lekceważony deficyt, zaniechanie daleko idącej restrukturyzacji gospodarki) oraz odpowiedzi na pytanie, czy podobny scenariusz zagraża Polsce.