Iran w cieniu Arabskiej Wiosny : marginalizacja zielonego ruchu i konflikt w obozie konserwatystów

• Autorzy: Rachela Tonta

Warianty tytułu

Iran in the Shadow of the Arab Spring : Marginalisation of the Green Movement and Conflict in the Conservative Camp

• Języki publikacji: PL

Abstrakty

Arabska Wiosna, zapoczątkowana wydarzeniami, które miały miejsce pod koniec 2010 r. W Tunezji, ogarnęła znaczną część Bliskiego Wschodu, w tym Iran. Jednak demonstracja poparcia rewolucjonistów w Tunezji i Egipcie, która rozpoczęła się w Iranie w lutym 2011 r., Była skazana na porażkę. Z jednej strony reżim podjął wszelkie możliwe środki, aby zapobiec opracowaniu podobnego scenariusza, jak w Tunezji i Egipcie. Z drugiej strony konflikt w obozie konserwatywnym między najwyższym przywódcą Aliem Chameneimem a prezydentem Mahmoudem Ahmadineżadem przyciągnął coraz większą uwagę irańskiej opinii publicznej. Artykuł ma na celu przeanalizowanie przyczyn konfliktu w obozie konserwatywnym, scharakteryzowanie rywalizujących grup politycznych i spróbuje odpowiedzieć na pytanie o możliwe konsekwencje tego konfliktu, nie tylko dla reformistów, ale irańskiego systemu politycznego, jako cały. Jak pokazują wyniki wyborów do 9. Majles, Ali Chamenei nadal ma największy wpływ na równowagę sił w Islamskiej Republice, ale biorąc pod uwagę rosnący wpływ Korpusu Gwardii Rewolucyjnej, mogą stać się znacznie większym zagrożeniem dla Najwyższego Lidera niż reformiści. (abstrakt oryginalny)

EN

The Arab Spring, which was initiated by the events taking place at the end of 2010 in Tunisia, gripped much of the Middle East, including Iran. However, demonstration of support for revolutionaries in Tunisia and Egypt, which began in Iran in February 2011 were doomed from the start to failure. On the one hand, the regime had taken all possible measures to prevent development of similar scenario, as in Tunisia and Egypt. On the other hand, the conflict in the conservative camp, between the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei and the president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad attracted growing attention of the Iranian public. The article aims to analyze the causes of the conflict in the conservative camp, to characterize the rival political groups and will attempt to answer the question about possible consequences of this conflict, not only for the reformists, but for the Iranian political system, as a whole. As the results of elections to the 9th Majles show, Ali Khamenei continues to have the greatest impact on the balance of power in the Islamic Republic, but taking into account the growing influence of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, they may become much greater threat for Supreme Leader than the reformists. (original abstract)

Słowa kluczowe

PL

Arabska Wiosna; System polityczny; Rewolucja

EN

Arab Spring; Political system; Revolution

• Czasopismo: Krakowskie Studia Międzynarodowe
• Rocznik: 2012
• Numer: nr 1 Arabska wiosna rok później
• Strony: 223--241

Twórcy

autor

Rachela Tonta

• Uniwersytet Jagielloński

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