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2014 | 22 | nr 1 | 3--15
Tytuł artykułu

Estimating Economic Regional Effects of Euro 2012 : Ex-ante and Ex-post Approach

Treść / Zawartość
Warianty tytułu
Języki publikacji
EN
Abstrakty
EN
Purpose: In this paper we evaluate both ex-ante and ex-post macroeconomic impact of EURO 2012TM on Polish regions.

Methodology: We start with modifying the Keynesian-style multiplier model to investigate the effects of Euro 2012-related spending on local economies. This specification permits us, on the one hand, to easily investigate the impact on each demand component, and, on the other hand, to calculate the magnitudes of these multipliers in order to judge the credibility of potential regional welfare benefits. This analysis is strengthened by taking into account the regional supply constraints. The second part of our study is devoted to an econometric estimation of long-run macroeconomic impact.

Findings: Our study does not provide a strong evidence of EURO 2012- specific effects. We find the regional multipliers' values ranging from 1,13 to 1,33 for four hosting regions. This translates into an uncommon statement of rather evenly developed regions. The ex-ante study also testifies of an importance of public expenditure in convergence process. In case of ex-post analysis, the estimates of regional production function reveal a modest positive effect of EURO 2012-related infrastructure spending. However, this effect is small, and there is no statistical evidence that hosting regions recorded an event-specific growth boost.

Research limitations: Both ex-ante and ex-post studies are sensitive to regional data, therefore, some calculations may suffer from disaggregation error. Additionally, ex-post analysis needs to be repeated in order to gain more insights from historical data. Finally, authors plan to complement the analysis by the Ukrainian study.

Originality: This is the first paper to date addressing the EURO 2012 macroeconomic impact from the regional perspective. (original abstract)
Rocznik
Tom
22
Numer
Strony
3--15
Opis fizyczny
Twórcy
  • Université Paris, France
  • Kozminski University, Warsaw, Poland
Bibliografia
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Bibliografia
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